Consumer confidence in overseas travel is diminishing even as the overall mood appears to be lifting, a weekly tracker of UK consumer sentiment has found.
Research firm BVA BDRC’s Covid-19 Tracker reported a drop in the proportion of consumers anticipating an overseas holiday in the next six months for a second successive week last week.
Four out of five respondents (79%) said they still plan an overseas holiday, but only one in four (25%) anticipated doing so in the next six months, with 25% expecting to travel in six to 12 months and 29% unsure.
Barely one in four (23%) said they plan to book an overseas trip in the next six months, up from 16% a month ago but down from 30% on April 6-7.
The rolling survey of 500-plus consumers is conducted each week. The latest poll of almost 900 UK adults on April 20-22 found a decline in the numbers intending to proceed with existing holiday plans and a rise in those cancelling bookings.
Just 15% said they intend to take a booked holiday, flight or accommodation, down from 19% the previous week although up from 8% on March 23-24.
Of those with travel bookings more than one third (36%) had postponed – up from 25% the previous week. One in five (22%) reported cancelled bookings which they intend to re-book and 32% cancellations with no plans to re-book – up from 28% at the start of the lockdown.
The tracker found a decrease in the numbers intending to fly in the next six months.
By contrast, the proportion of respondents thinking about taking a UK holiday increased to 85%, up from 81% on April 14-15 and 78% on March 23-24. Two in five (38%) said they planned a domestic holiday within six months and another 22% within six to 12 months, with 25% unsure of the timing.
Business confidence lags consumers
The latest BVA BDRC Covid-19 Tracker found UK consumer confidence last week at its highest since the crisis began, but with business confidence lagging.
BVA BDRC reported the mood among UK consumers “significantly improved” in the week commencing April 20, with those who believe the worst is still to come “in a minority for the first time” since the lockdown began.
Two in five (39%) thought the worst of the crisis still ahead, was down from 60% a week earlier and from 78% in early April.
Almost one in five (18%) thought the worst was past, up from 11% a week earlier, with the remainder in between.
However, expectations of when life may return to normal slipped backwards, with only one in four expecting a return to normality by the end of July, down from one in three a week earlier, and just over half (54%) expecting normality to return by the end of September, down from 67% two weeks ago.
Businesses appear much less optimistic. Fewer than one in 10 (8%) thought the worst past and 65% foresaw worse to come.
Three-quarters (74%) of businesses across all sectors reported being negatively impacted by the crisis and a further 20% expect to be. More than one in four (27%) of business respondents said they lacked confidence their business would survive.
The Covid-19 Tracker includes a business panel comprising 1,000-plus businesses.
Holiday Trends 2020
A Holiday Trends 2020 report by consumer research firm BVA BDRC found 41% of UK consumers surveyed in March had cancelled or expected to cancel overseas trips.
Of these, 14% had cancelled short breaks and 33% longer holidays – with some having more than one booking.
Seven in 10 of those who had cancelled overseas holidays and eight out of 10 with short-breaks said they intended to re-book in whole or in part. Only one in 10 said they would not rebook, with the remainder undecided.
Almost two thirds (63%) were still “seriously considering” a break overseas, only eight points down on January.
The BVA BDRC report Holiday Trends 2020 is based a survey of 1,000 UK adults interviewed in early January and a further 500 interviewed on March 20-23.
It’s available from www.holidaytrends2020.com