Virgin Atlantic has slammed revised forecasts of UK air passenger numbers, saying a fall in the projected number of visitors was “of extreme concern”.
The Department for Transport’s forecasts of air travel demand to 2050 suggest foreign visitor numbers to the UK will rise to 45 million a year by 2030, down from a previous estimate of 48 million.
Virgin Atlantic suggested the new figures represented a loss to the economy of £1.7 billion. The carrier’s chief commercial officer, Julie Southan, said: “The loss of three million inbound passengers will have an alarming impact on the UK economy.
“Aviation’s economic contribution is being stifled by constraints on growth, ever-increasing air passenger duty [APD] and prohibitive visa processes. These projections show how crucial it will be for the industry to get a favourable outcome from the current consultation on APD.”
Despite the downward revision, the DfT forecast represents a 59% increase in visitor numbers. The DfT said it updated its forecasts in light of several developments since its last predictions in 2009, “published under the previous administration alongside the announcement of its decision to confirm support for a third runway at Heathrow”.
One of the first actions of the coalition government, elected last year, was to cancel the third runway.
The DfT listed six factors behind the revised forecasts, including changes to APD. However, its new projections assume no further real increase in APD over inflation.
It also took into account the government decision not to allow new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick or Stansted; the decision to include aviation in European emissions trading from 2012; the government policy to develop high-speed rail; changes in forecasts of economic growth and oil prices; and developments in forecasting methodology.
The Dft also noted “inherent uncertainty” in the forecasts.