The UK is set to lose £22 billion with the collapse of international travel this year, according to new estimates.
Continuing uncertainty around travel restrictions designed to curb the spread of Covid-19 is hitting inbound travel.
International visitor spending could plunge by 78% compared to 2019 levels, equating to a loss of £60 million a day, or £420 million a week, to the UK economy.
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Almost three million jobs in the UK supported by travel and tourism are at risk of being lost in a ‘worst case’ scenario mapped out by World Travel & Tourism Council economic modelling.
The sector was responsible for almost four million UK jobs last year, or 11% of the country’s total workforce. It also generated nearly £200 billion GDP, or 9% to the UK economy.
WTTC president and chiefv executive Gloria Guevara said: “The economic pain and suffering caused to millions of households across the UK, who are dependent upon travel and tourism for their livelihoods, is evident from the latest WTTC figures.
“The lack of international travel caused by the pandemic could wipe out more than £22 billion from the UK economy alone – a loss of £60 million pounds a day – from which it could take years to recover.
“It could also threaten London’s position as one of the world’s premier hubs for business and leisure travel which could see other destinations take over.”
She added: “We urgently need to replace stop-start quarantine measures with rapid, comprehensive and cost-effective test and trace programmes at departure points across the country. This investment will be significantly less than the impact of blunt quarantines which have devastating and far-reaching socio-economic consequences.
“Targeted test and tracing will also rebuild consumer confidence to travel. It will enable the restoration of vital ‘air corridors’ between countries and regions with similar COVID-19 case rates.
“A quick turnaround test and trace system in place for all departing passengers means the government could consider reinstating travel between the UK and major international hubs.
Restoring business travel between financial centres, such as London and New York, would act as an engine to help kick-start the economic global recovery, the WTTC believes.
Guevara said: “International co-ordination to re-establish transatlantic travel – for business and leisure trips – would provide a vital shot in the arm for the travel and tourism sector.
“It would benefit airlines and hotels, travel agents and tour operators and revitalise the millions of jobs in the supply chain which are dependent upon international travel across the Atlantic.”
WTTC analysis of international travel spending in the UK during 2019 reveals it reached almost £28.2 billion, accounting for 17% of the total tourism spend in the UK. Domestic travel spending was responsible for the other 83%.
Spending from international travellers during 2019 accounted for £2.35 billion or £540 million a week – and £77.3 million a day.
The largest inbound source markets to the UK were travellers from the US and France between 2016-18, each accounting for 10% of all international arrivals, with Germany third with 9%, and Ireland and Spain in joint fourth place with 7% each.