Outbound travel during the peak summer months this year has held up, and with the exception of one or two high profile failures, most outbound operators will have seen a summer period broadly in line with expectations.
This will still be well under the numbers we saw travelling midway through the last decade, but despite this travel does remain hugely important for the British public.
It is telling that in August there were almost twice as many travellers heading abroad from the UK (4.61 million) than visitors coming to the UK from overseas (2.49 million) and the family holiday has remained sacred in most households.
This is against a challenging backdrop. Consumer spending has fallen over the last three quarters, and periphery trips such as city breaks are suffering. Some niche travel products have felt the pain too – gap years have declined as students focus on their careers rather than experiencing the world.
While many travel operators at both the budget and high end of the industry are still succeeding in the current climate it is often the middle that is getting squeezed. We will continue to see business models evolve rapidly today to cope with this shifting spending behaviour.
Looking forward, most companies we speak to in the outbound travel industry forecast little growth this year or next.
September and October travel numbers reported by the ONS are likely to show an adverse impact from current market volatility and its resulting impact in consumer and business confidence.
Many travel businesses are also predicting the Olympics will have a negative impact, as some consumers, particularly London-based, plan an Olympic staycation rather than spending on an overseas trip.
The weakness of the pound is also a reason for staying home for those that have a marginal decision on whether to travel or not.
One of the biggest factors set to impact the budget end of the market, but that will have reverberations across the travel sector, is rising unemployment.
With the UK unemployment rate hitting a 15-year high of 8.1%, it is unfortunately unlikely to be the last of the bad news from the labour market.
Although the Barclays view is a modest increase to around 8.5% over the next few years, the risks are skewed to higher growth in unemployment and a rise to double digits is not inconceivable.
There is also disparity between job losses and job creation regionally, as public sector job cuts seem likely to be most prevalent in Wales, Northern Ireland and the north of England, whereas private sector job creation is seen to be most vigorous in the midlands and the south east at present.
The travel market is similarly encountering greater economic challenges outside of the south east, and airlines and operators are likely to adjust capacity accordingly.
The travel industry is not immune from current economic turmoil but neither is it completely at its mercy. Many growing businesses are exploiting niches effectively, and Barclays is seeing good news stories in the industry that rarely get reported.
However, growth is now almost solely the preserve of gaining market share rather than relying on more travellers, and put simply that means the industry is more competitive than ever before.