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Latest booking data suggests no more than a limited surge in late sales this summer. Analyst GfK reported July bookings much improved on June’s 7% fall but still 3% down on July 2013.
Average prices in July, which typically accounts for about 10% of summer bookings, were also 3% down on a year ago. Season-to-date sales and revenue both remain 2% down on last year.
Sunvil chairman Noel Josephides, who chairs Abta, said: “We caught up a little in August – the last 10 days have been very strong, but not at decent prices.”
He added: “Nobody has relished 2014. There is a lot of nervousness. Everybody has been hit.”
Josephides blamed overcapacity, saying: “Everything was held in check during the recession and last year was pretty good. Then everyone thinks of doubling [capacity].”
A senior industry source told Travel Weekly: “It’s very tough at the moment. There is a lot of capacity. It’s the most difficult market we’ve had and we’ve not had anything bad happen – I don’t believe Gaza or an aircraft shot down over Ukraine has driven down the market.
“Everyone was very optimistic, believing the recession was over and people were going to spend. But we don’t see an upsurge in holidays. People are not getting great margins. The market has gone ex-growth [is not increasing].”
GfK reported some highlights. Package bookings rose again in July, up 1% year on year for summer and winter, and family bookings were up 4% this summer.
John Sullivan, head of commercial at Advantage Travel Partnership, said: “The mass market has had a few good weeks.
“Our members’ average prices were up year on year the week before last. It’s been a challenge but demand has been there from our point of view.”