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Support for the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns in the Scottish independence referendum are running neck and neck according to the latest poll released this morning.
A TNS poll of almost 1,000 adults in Scotland, published today, appeared to tally with the result of a YouGov poll at the weekend which showed the Yes campaign ahead for the first time.
TNS reported “a dramatic swing towards Yes over the past month” and “a surge in the number of those who say they are certain to vote”.
Scotland will vote in the referendum on independence from the UK on Thursday of next week (September 18).
TNS found the vote tied on 41% among those certain to go to the polls – a significant change on a month ago when 46% said they would vote No and 38% Yes.
Among those entitled to vote, 38% said they were ready to poll Yes and 39% No – a change from 45% No and 32% Yes in August.
TNS reported those aged 55-plus as now the only age group in which No voters outnumber Yes voters.
It noted: “Among those under 55 the Yes vote has achieved a significant upturn in the last month – from being eight percentage points behind the No vote, Yes now has a nine percentage point advantage.”
TNS added: “TNS surveys over the past six months have consistently shown that 70%-75% were certain to vote. This has leapt to 84% in the latest poll.
“This increase is especially pronounced among women and those aged 16-34.”
Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, said: “This poll reveals a remarkable shift in voting intentions. It is too close to call.”
Costley also heads the travel division of TNS which has carried out consumer research on behalf of Travel Weekly.
TNS polled 990 adults aged 16-plus across Scotland between August 27 and September 4.