Global air passenger numbers are expected to reach 7.3 billion by 2034 – a 4.1% average annual growth in demand.
The total projected by Iata represents more than double the 3.3 billion passengers expected to travel this year.
China is forecast to overtake the US as the world’s largest passenger market by 2030.
Flights to, from and within China will account for some 1.3 billion passengers in 20 years’ time – 856 million more than this year – with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%.
Traffic to, from and within the US is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.2% that will see 1.2 billion passengers by 2034 – 559 million more than 2014.
Iata’s first 20-year passenger growth forecast report, produced in association with Tourism Economics, analyses passenger flows across 4,000 country pairs for the next two decades, forecasting passenger numbers by way of three key demand drivers: living standards, population and demographics, and price and availability.
India, currently the ninth largest market, will see a total of 367 million passengers by 2034, an extra 266 million annual passengers compared to today. It will overtake the UK (148 million extra passengers, total market 337 million) to become the third largest market by around 2031.
India (up 266 million), Indonesia (up 183 million) and Brazil (up 170 million) will follow China and the US in terms of growth.
Iata expects eight of the ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms to be in Africa, with Central African Republic, Madagascar, Tanzania, Burundi and Kuwait making up the five fastest-growing markets.
In terms of country-pairs, Asian and South American destinations will see the fastest growth, reflecting economic and demographic growth in those markets.
Intra-Pakistan, Kuwait-Thailand, United Arab Emirates-Ethiopia, Colombia-Ecuador and intra-Honduras travel will all grow by at least 9.5% on average for the next 20 years, while Indonesia-East Timor will be the fastest growing pair of all, at 14.9%.
Iata director general and chief executive, Tony Tyler (pictured), said: “It is an exciting prospect to think that in the next 20 years more than twice as many passengers as today will have the chance to fly.
“Air connectivity on this scale will help transform economic opportunities for millions of people.
“At present, aviation helps sustain 58 million jobs and $2.4 trillion in economic activity. In 20 years’ time we can expect aviation to be supporting around 105 million jobs and $6 trillion in GDP.”
But there is potential for “policy-induced obstacles” to hinder the development of connectivity despite improving living standards, population and demographics, and price and availability creating the conditions for improved demand.
“Meeting the potential demand will require government policies that support the economic benefits that growing connectivity makes possible,” said Tyler.
“Airlines can only fly where there is infrastructure to accommodate them. People can only fly as long as ticket taxes don’t price them out of their seats. And air connectivity can only thrive when nations open their skies and their markets.
“It’s a virtuous circle. Growing connectivity stimulates economies. And healthy economies demand greater connectivity. The message of this forecast is that there is great potential if all aviation stakeholders – including governments – play their role.”
The aviation industry recognizes that air travel has an environmental impact, and is committed to reducing its carbon footprint. In 2009, the industry agreed three targets which will ensure that aviation plays its part in ensuring a sustainable future.