The closure of Ukrainian and Russian airspace following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to the rerouting of flights to and from the Asia-Pacific and cancellation of services to the affected countries this week. However, the immediate impact on air travel was diminished by lingering Covid restrictions.
One airline source told Travel Weekly: “Many of the markets served by overflying Russia remain suppressed. Flights to the Far East will be most impacted, but there is not a lot of traffic because of Covid. Flying to Korea and Japan is limited.
“Where flights need to be re-routed, there are scheduling issues and costs. The impact on flight times can be anywhere from 15 minutes to a couple of hours.”
The source added: “The airspace issues are complicated, but not insurmountable. They could lead to airspace congestion over Turkey and potentially some delays, but the volume of traffic is still lower than normal.
“The fuel price will have an impact depending on a carrier’s fuel-hedging policy. It is layering on the financial woes of the industry.”
A second source noted the war’s “short term operational impacts” which “UK airlines are managing, re-routing flights which used Russian airspace to get to the Asia-Pacific”, but insisted it is “too early” to judge the wider impact on demand.
The source warned: “The impacts on the price of oil and on passenger demand will be critical. Geopolitical shocks like this generally have an impact on travel. If we hadn’t had Covid, we’d be thinking this is extremely serious for the industry, like the two Gulf Wars. There is a degree of desensitisation.
“However, sentiment in Poland and the Baltic States where a lot of traffic goes into the affected region will be different to the UK, Germany and France.”
The first source agreed, saying: “Covid starts to look less worrying than Ukraine now. There is no hope of this not getting worse. It looks grim.”
Iata has issued a revised forecast of air passenger traffic, predicting total air travel would exceed 2019’s level by 2024 and international travel by 2025. However, the figures took no account of the war.
Iata noted: “It’s clear there are downside risks. The impact on airline costs could have broader implications. Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to be impacted outside of Eastern Europe.”
Russia banned UK airlines from its airspace last Friday following a UK ban on Russian carriers on Thursday night. The EU followed with a ban on Russian aircraft and Russia reciprocated. The UK FCDO has advised against all travel to Russia.