International tourism arrivals could return to pre-pandemic levels in Europe and the Middle East this year after a stronger than expected recovery from Covid curbs in 2022.
The recovery is forecast to continue throughout 2023 even as the sector faces up to economic, health and geopolitical challenges.
However, travellers are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to the “challenging” economic climate, according to new US World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) projections.
More than 900 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022 – double the number recorded in 2021 though still 63% of pre-pandemic levels, according to new UNWTO data.
Every global region recorded notable increases in international tourist numbers, led by the Gulf region. Europe reached nearly 80% of pre-pandemic levels as it received 585 million arrivals in 2022. Africa and the Americas both recovered about 65% of their pre-pandemic visitors, while Asia and the Pacific reached only 23%, due to stronger pandemic-related restrictions which have only started to be removed recently.
Global international tourist arrivals could reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels this year, based on UNWTO forward-looking scenarios for 2023.
But the rebound is dependent on the extent of the economic slowdown, the ongoing recovery of travel in Asia and the Pacific and the evolution of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, among other factors.
The recent lifting of Covid-19 related travel restrictions in China, the world’s largest outbound market in 2019, is seen as a “significant step” for the recovery of the tourism sector in Asia and the Pacific and worldwide.
The resumption of travel from China is likely to benefit Asian destinations in particular in the short term.
This will be shaped by the availability and cost of air travel, visa regulations and Covid-19 related restrictions in the destinations. By mid-January a total of 32 countries had imposed specific travel restrictions related to travel from China, mostly in Asia and Europe, including the UK.
At the same time, strong demand from the US, backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the region and beyond.
Europe will continue to enjoy strong travel flows from the US, partly due to a weaker euro versus the US dollar.
The economic situation could translate into tourists adopting a more “cautious attitude” in 2023, with reduced spending, shorter trips and travel closer to home, the UNWTO warned.
Continued uncertainty caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, as well as health challenges related to Covid-19 also represent “downside risks” and could weigh on tourism’s recovery in the months ahead, the UNWTO cautioned.
The organisation’s latest confidence index shows “cautious optimism” for January-April, higher than the same period in 2022.
This is backed by the opening up in Asia and strong spending numbers last year from both traditional and emerging tourism source markets, with France, Germany and Italy as well as Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia all posting strong results.
UNWTO secretary-general Zurab Pololikashvili said: “A new year brings more reason for optimism for global tourism.
“UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty.
“Economic factors may influence how people travel in 2023 and UNWTO expects demand for domestic and regional travel to remain strong and help drive the sector’s wider recovery.”