The increasing number of seasons on sale is driving a rise in cancellation rates and hitting the earnings of agents dependent on commission.
That is according to Alistair Rowland, chief executive of Blue Bay Travel and chairman of Abta, who said: “The earlier launch of mainstream holiday seasons is becoming a problem. The launches are too early. The deposits are too low, and that is driving a much higher cancellation profile.”
Speaking at a Travel Weekly Business Breakfast ahead of the opening of Abta’s Travel Convention in Greece on Tuesday, Rowland argued: “Typically, 10% is a typical cancellation ratio. The tour operators are not bothered – they can just sell the holidays again. But agents get no commission for their work.”
The Advantage Travel Partnership commercial director John Sullivan agreed, suggesting: “Different parts of the country see different levels of deposit, but some tour operators’ cancellation rates are up to 40%. From an agent’s point of view, that is a nightmare. They make all that effort and no commission.”
The early launch of future seasons has been a growing feature of the post-pandemic travel boom, with Jet2holidays’ summer 2026 programme already on sale along with easyJet holidays’ winter 2025‑26 programme and Tui’s summer 2026 programme due to launch this month.
Tui UK and Ireland managing director Neil Swanson acknowledged: “We do have to watch the cancellation rate.” But he argued: “It’s the customer driving this. The demand is there.”
Sullivan also criticised the lack of price parity online and in shops, saying: “Why have two prices? It’s not a great message to the customer when there is a different price online to in store. You’ve got to look at a different business model.”
However, Swanson said: “So many people are coming in [to shops] with a price match. You can see the benefit for customers and it allows a negotiation in our shops.”
He added: “If there was a different price [in store] there would be a different level of commission.”
Kuoni managing director Mark Duguid noted: “The first thing my predecessor at Kuoni did was reintroduce price parity, but you do have to look at commission. You have to get the financials right.”
Rowland warned any tail-off in demand could leave agents exposed, saying: “We’re in a post-Covid bounce now, but when the market flattens, agents can’t survive with that cancellation rate. Agents are working hard for not enough money now. It won’t be enough when the market becomes more difficult. It needs to be looked at.”
Swanson declared Tui “incredibly pleased” with its sales through third‑party agents in the past year, saying: “It has exceeded our expectations. Some agents have really embraced it. Some agents clearly still don’t want to work with us. We’d love to turn them around.”
Sullivan told him: “I can maybe help with some ideas on how you get those involved.
“We believed Tui was missing an opportunity [with the trade] for a while. We showed them some numbers. They said, ‘We’d never get to that level.’ So we looked again, did a trial, and the numbers now are higher than we first showed them. I like to think Advantage played a pivotal part.”