The global number of international departures will reach 68% of the pre-Covid levels this year – and recover fully by 2025, according to analytics firm GlobalData.
The numbers are expected to improve to 82% in 2023, and 97% in 2024, before making a full recovery by 2025 at 101% of 2019 levels, with a projected 1.5 billion international departures.
However, the recovery will be uneven, with Europe and Asia lagging behind other regions, according to GlobalData.
Hannah Free, travel and tourism analyst at GlobalData, said: “International departures from European countries are expected to reach 69% of 2019 figures in 2022.
“As travel confidence rebuilds, the intra-European market is expected to benefit, driven by preferences for short-haul travel.
“However, travel recovery must contend with inflation, rising costs of living, and the war in Ukraine.
“By 2025, international departures are projected to be 98% of 2019 levels.
“Geographically, the war has not spread beyond Ukrainian borders. However, Russia was the world’s fifth largest outbound travel market in 2019, while Ukraine was the 12th.
“Limited outbound travel from these countries will hinder Europe’s overall tourism recovery.”
She said outbound departures from North America are projected to reach 69% of 2019 levels this year, before making a full recovery by 2024, at 102% of 2019 levels, ahead of other regions.
Asia-Pacific is expected to lag, with outbound departures reaching 67% of 2019 levels in 2022, as China maintains its strict border measures.
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