| Journal: TWUK | Section: |
| Title: | Issue Date: 17/07/00 |
| Author: | Page Number: 13 |
| Copyright: Other |
The doom and gloom merchants are at it again – forecasting a summer as grim as the current weather. But by the end of the season, things may look a whole lot brighter
paul riches
As I spent the weekend staring out of my window at the pouring rain, the last place I wanted to be was in the UK in the summer.What I needed was to jet away to some glorious sun-baked isle.
I would appear to be in the minority, if we are to believe the latest industry predictions of a sales disaster for this summer.
So the question that needs to be asked is why is the market so flat, and more importantly, what will make it recover?
On the plus side, the economy is still pretty good, inflation is low, house prices have risen steadily and there is still a bit of windfall money around.
So this year should be no different from the rest, with the customer willing to book but waiting to see if prices will hold firm for high season.
Customers who book late still believe they will get a bargain, even in high season, and why should they think otherwise when our industry does nothing to counter this view.
When fluid pricing was introduced, its purpose was to give the best prices to early bookers. Now it is merely a tactical vehicle to outmanoeuvre the competition.
The only sector to have consistently given the best prices to early bookers would seem to be the low-cost airlines. Has anyone tried to book a £39 EasyJet ticket to Palma two days in advance, only to be presented with a fare of around £150 one- way?
Quite simply, the later you leave it to book, the more expensive the ticket becomes.
We don’t do ourselves any justice when so-called industry experts are allowed to be seen as industry spokespeople, representing the views of the majority.
Where is the research and analysis to back up these wild predictions?
When business has been brought forward – this summer was around 10% up pre-Christmas – why does everyone still expect bookings to remain ahead consistently for the rest of the season? It is inevitable they must fall away and finish at around the same level as last year.
We can all make predictions, so mine would be that this summer may not be the best of years, but high season, if managed correctly, will still produce some good results. A lot depends on how well operators have performed in capturing early-brochured sales.
Why will the market end in a reasonably healthy position?
Well, the difference may be that after a few more weekends of downpours, the industry will finally entice the public to escape the stormy weather and travel to sunnier climes, leaving the doom and gloom merchants who predict an awful year, home where they belong!
“Quite simply, the later you leave it to book the more expensivethe ticket”