International tourism dropped by 22% in the first quarter of 2020 and could decline by 60-80% over the whole year, latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has found.
It said the 67 million fewer international tourists than expected up to March translates into $80 billion in lost exports, placing “millions of livelihoods at risk” and could threaten sustainability targets.
Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The world is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis. Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the economy.”
Arrivals in March dropped by 57% following the start of a lockdown in many countries, as well as the widespread introduction of travel restrictions and closure of airports and national borders.
Asia and the Pacific was down by 33 million arrivals and Europe down by 22 million, the UNWTO said.
Prospects for the year have been downgraded several times since the outbreak. The UNWTO’s three current scenarios point to possible declines in arrivals of 58% to 78% for the year. These depend on the speed of containment and the duration of travel restrictions and shutdown of borders.
The organisation said, depending of the scenarios, the impact on travel could range from a loss of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourists, which would mean a loss of US$910 billion to US$1.2 trillion in export revenues from tourism, and 100-120 million direct tourism jobs.
“This is by far the worst crisis that international tourism has faced since records began (1950),” it said. “The impact will be felt to varying degrees in the different global regions and at overlapping times, with Asia and the Pacific expected to rebound first.”
Experts at the UNWTO said they expected to see a recovery in late 2020 and into 2021, with domestic demand expected to recover faster than international. It said that, based on previous crises, leisure travel is likely to recover quicker than business travel, particularly for people visiting friends and relatives.
