Image via Shutterstock
The Yes/No choice in Scotland has implications for all, including those in travel, argues Ian Taylor
The Scottish independence referendum has for months been viewed outside Scotland somewhat like the Yes/No ‘interlude’ which formed part of 1960s TV game show Take Your Pick.
Contestants would spend up to 60 seconds attempting to avoid replying Yes or No to questions. But this was not the main show. That was to come.
The YouGov poll at the weekend suggesting a two-point lead for a ‘Yes’ to Scottish independence – the first time the Yes campaign has been ahead – banished any notion next week’s referendum would merely provide a prelude to the coming general election.
For now – and the next nine days – it is the only game.
The extent of the turnaround in the YouGov poll – from a 22 percentage point lead for the No campaign to a two-point majority for Yes inside a month – sent shock waves through Westminster and Whitehall.
Monday’s Financial Times front page declared: “Pro-union camp in chaos”. The Times reported: “Cameron faces wave of fury if Union lost”.
Suggestions it could be a rogue poll can be discounted in light of the TNS poll published this morning which shows the Yes and No campaigns neck and neck.
It surely is not hard to understand why Scots might vote Yes. Who wouldn’t want to be shot of Westminster?
The Yes campaign is overwhelmingly anti-Tory – hence Alex Salmond’s focus on the NHS in the recent TV debate – and Labour, which leads the No campaign, is seen as too ‘Tory’ to offer an alternative. But what are the implications?
Let’s leave aside the impact on Scotland, and whether Alex Salmond can/will deliver on his promises, other than noting US economist Paul Krugman’s suggestion this week that “it’s all too likely Scotland would end up becoming Spain without the sunshine”.
The immediate impact of a Yes vote on the rest of Britain would be profound uncertainty, triggering a political – and possibly a financial – crisis.
Leaders of the Yes campaign have identified March 2016 as the deadline for independence if the vote goes their way. The uncertainty about how independence will be achieved, and with what consequences for Britain, will be prolonged.
The first ‘victim’ of a Yes would be David Cameron, whether he goes immediately – perhaps causing the break-up of the Government and an early election – or clings on till next May.
The Conservative and Unionist Party he heads would never forgive Cameron for overseeing the break-up of the UK. He would be like Gordon Brown in 2010 – dead in the political water.
The weekend panic among Tory MPs gave a hint of what may be to come – suggestions of unseating Cameron this autumn and demands for a Tory electoral pact with Ukip.
The clear political winner would be Boris Johnson, comfortably placed to be Tory candidate for the safe seat of Uxbridge, to re-enter parliament and stand in a leadership election.
Boris would be bad news for Heathrow, of course. He can be expected to fight a third runway every step of the way regardless of anything the Davies Commission may recommend.
A second ‘victim’ would be Ed Miliband and Labour. Without Labour’s Scottish MPs a majority at Westminster appears unattainable.
What that means for a general election next May – perhaps 10 months before Scotland goes solo – is unclear. Perhaps MPs would be elected from Scotland only to withdraw on independence, triggering a fresh election for the rest of us.
So a second winner could be the Tories – but it is likely to be the anti-Europe, pro-Ukip Tory party that triumphs, leading to tougher immigration policies and increased likelihood of England-Wales-Northern Ireland exiting the EU.
A third victim would be the pound, which fell to its lowest value against the dollar in 10 months yesterday on news of the YouGov poll.
A falling pound would have clear and immediate implications for travel – the US and Europe would become more expensive to visit and inflation would rise, eating further into discretionary spending as incomes continue to stall.
The economic implications extend wider. The Financial Times looked at the likely fall-out on Saturday, before the YouGov bombshell.
It quoted UBS Wealth Management UK head Bill O’Neill, who warned of a “ferocious response” from investors and suggested: “There would be a fall in UK growth.”
Goldman Sachs analyst Kevin Daly warned of “a prolonged period of uncertainty”, arguing: “This is likely to have adverse economic consequences.”
These consequences would feed into the growing risk of deflation in the euro zone, the fall-out of sanctions on Russia, and so on.
A fourth victim would be Britain and its place in the world – or, at least, the international standing of its political establishment.
What of Britain’s place in the G7 group of leading economies? What of its place on the UN Security Council? England/Wales/Northern Ireland might not be so unlike Spain without the sunshine in some respects.
Domestically, much could depend on the reaction of ‘the political class’ and how united it is.
Tory reaction to the YouGov poll suggested little unity, but we should not underestimate the ability of Whitehall – sitting behind Westminster – to handle a crisis.
Strange things can happen – a ‘government of national unity’ perhaps?
To return to Take Your Pick: the core of the game show saw contestants answer general knowledge questions in hope of winning a ‘star prize’.
But there was more than a simple win or lose outcome. Successful contestants faced a choice – hence, Take Your Pick. They had to select a box from among a number containing a range of prizes – including booby prizes – and one fabulous, star prize.
Often they got a booby.
Between picking the box and opening it, the compere would offer increasingly large sums of money to persuade them not to open it – think of Gordon Brown and George Osborne in this respect.
All the while, the studio audience would yell ‘Open the box’.
The chorus of ‘open the box’ in Scotland may now be enough to overwhelm the promises of Westminster. The box may be Pandora’s.