Carbon offsetting, technological efficiencies and the use of biofuels are “woefully inadequate” to achieve net zero emissions as global tourism set to double in size by 2050.
Such measures alone will fail to meet the Paris Agreement-aligned goals to halve emissions by 2030 and and 2050 at the latest, according to a report to be issued by the Travel Foundation.
Instead, they should be combined with “significant investments and incentives” for bringing forward the greenest forms of transport, and limits on the most polluting.
“This is the only scenario that can provide comparable levels of revenue and opportunities to travel in a decarbonising world,” the report warns.
Some limits must also be applied to aviation growth until it is fully able to decarbonise, in particular capping the longest-distance trips to 2019 levels, it suggests.
These made up just 2% of all trips in 2019 but are, by far, the most polluting. If left unchecked, they will quadruple by 2050, accounting for 41% of tourism’s total emissions – up from 19% in 2019 – yet still just 4% of all trips.
“The best-case scenario identified means the world can still travel and tourism can support the destinations and businesses that rely on it, avoiding Covid-like restrictions and regulations. Step out of this scenario and it will be much worse for the planet and tourism,” the study warns.
The report emphasises the huge undertaking required to achieve this future, but shows it is technically possible if the will is there.
Destinations, such as island nations, which are both more susceptible to the impacts of climate change and most dependent on tourism and long-haul visitors, must be the first to be supported.
This should be part of a global co-ordinated response to address the existing inequity within the tourism system.
Many countries have yet to fully develop their tourism economies and will have fewer resources to invest in green infrastructure, according to the Envisioning Tourism in 2030 study to be published early next year.
Menno Stokman, director at the Centre of Expertise Leisure, Tourism & Hospitality (CELTH), said: “It’s clear that business as usual for tourism is neither desirable nor viable.
“Climate impacts are already here, increasing in frequency and severity, with monumental costs for humanity and the environment that affect tourism more than most other sectors.
“Current decarbonisation strategies will reach net zero far too late. So we must reshape the system.
“From a climate perspective, once we reach net zero we can travel as much as we like. Shifts in investment will get us there within a decade for shorter-distance trips.
“But for long-haul we need more time, and we should take this into account as tourism plans its future.”
Intrepid Travel global environmental impact manager Dr Susanne Etti said: “This research clearly shows the need to plan now for a resilient low carbon tourism sector.
“We must recognise the future will be different from business as usual and that the climate crisis is not a competitive advantage.
“Tourism operators should unite behind the Glasgow Declaration [on climate action in tourism] to align, collaborate and accelerate collective action and innovation to decarbonise travel. Only then can our industry truly achieve its huge potential sustainable development.”
Travel Foundation chief executive Jeremy Sampson added: “As always, the risk is that the most vulnerable people and nations, those that did the least to cause climate change in the first place, will lose out.
“We urge governments at COP and beyond to co-ordinate globally and consider what is fair in terms of who pays for this huge investment, and what is equitable in terms of optimising global travel distribution.
“We must not exacerbate the existing system, which often fails to yield fair outcomes for host communities. Instead, tourism’s coming transformation is the sector’s opportunity to make good on its promise to be a catalyst for positive change once and for all.”