The UK government’s quarantine restrictions have “had a dramatic impact” on UK outbound travel intentions, latest research reveals.
A BVA-BDRC survey of more than 1,700 UK adults in late May suggests only 4% now intend to take an overseas holiday by the end of September.
The weekly BVA-BDRC research found that where UK consumer intentions to travel domestically and overseas had been broadly similar up to early May, by the end of last month: “The difference in lead [booking] time between UK and overseas trips had diverged considerably. “
The researchers note that on average: “Britons next expect to take an overseas holiday in nine months’ time, which takes us to spring 2021, compared to six months’ time for UK holidays.”
The survey found the average lead time for booking an overseas holiday was now seven months compared with 4.6 months for a UK holiday.
The lead-in booking times had been broadly similar through the period of lockdown until Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s first announcement of 14-day quarantine restrictions on May 10.
BVA-BDRC reports: “There is no sugar coating the situation. It is pretty dire for the industry.”
However, the survey results do suggest increased demand for winter-sun holidays, with 38% of respondents either “planning a trip between October and March or would like to take one”.
The researchers note: “Overseas travel is still a priority for the British public. It’s more a question of how and when rather than whether they will go.”
The survey identifies the “small but resilient” 4% of the population “still determined to take an overseas holiday this summer, between now and September” as younger, better off financially and mostly office-based.
BVA-BDRC suggests package holidays “with fewer hidden costs and few logistical, physical and psychological touch points” will appeal most to these consumers, making Spain an attractive option.
It suggests demand for winter-sun holidays will be stronger as a consequence of people foregoing overseas trips this summer.
The researchers report the market for winter sun before the Covid-19 pandemic was about 17% of the UK population, less than half the 38% now suggested by the survey.
They note: “Usually only a proportion of those predicting winter sun trips end up taking them, but this year is likely to be different.”
The winter-sun market also shows a “tendency towards package holidays”.
The BVA-BDRC research was conducted on May 26-29.
