Airlines will see demand for 44,500 new aircraft worth $2.9 trillion globally over the next two decades, according to a new forecast.
The projection comes despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Covid travel restrictions in China, and rising energy costs all emerging as influential factors during 2022.
The aviation industry’s recovery from the pandemic in early 2020 has progressed significantly if unevenly across regions. Global aviation activity is predicted to reach 2019 levels in October.
The forecast published by Ascend by Cirium, the consultancy arm of aviation data firm Cirium, covers the global passenger and freighter market for the next 20 years.
It reaffirms a long-term projection for the aviation industry and its recovery from the pandemic, predicting that 20-year aircraft deliveries will be just 1% lower globally than predicted a year ago.
Asia-Pacific remains the key growth region for new deliveries, driven by China. The country is forecast to have the highest annual passenger traffic growth rate at more than 6% and account for 19% of deliveries in 2041, ahead of all other countries in the region, with a combined share of 22%.
North American and European airlines are projected to account for 21% and 17% of deliveries respectively.
Middle East airlines will take 7% of deliveries, accounting for 14% in value terms.
In the forecast assumes that Russian capacity and traffic will decline in the near term. Combined with the complete cessation of Ukrainian civil aviation activity, Russia/CIS traffic is then forecast to stabilise at 70% of 2019 levels in 2024.
Almost 88% of the current passenger fleet is set to be retired from passenger service during the next 20 years.
Overall, there will be some 19,000 retirements from the 2021 passenger fleet, plus a further 2,500 aircraft that leave the passenger fleet via cargo conversion.
Replacing less efficient older-generation types will be an increasingly important element of fleet planning as pressure to switch to more environmentally friendly aircraft grows.
The Covid-19 crisis has seen relatively young aircraft being phased out, while those of older vintages may remain in storage until being eventually scrapped.
Rob Morris, Ascend by Cirium’s global head of consultancy, said: “The new fleet forecast shows a positive long-term outlook for aviation. The industry is undergoing structural changes, but remains on course to return to traditional growth paths by 2025.
“The global passenger fleet will be required to increase by around 22,000 aircraft to service passenger traffic, which we predict to grow 3.6% annually to reach 47,700 aircraft by the end of 2041.
“These new aircraft will be required to meet demand for air travel, but also to replace less efficient, older-generation types.”